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Volume 4 Number 4 April 2018

Occurred Uncertainty by ‘News’ in Japanese Short- and Long-Term Financial Markets


Authors: Yutaka Kurihara
Pages: 93-98
Abstract
This paper empirically examines the role of uncertainty occurred by ‘news’ in Japanese financial markets. A GARCH-MIDAS model is used for estimation. It finds that news-based implied volatility performs well in predicting long-term aggregate market volatilities. A subsample analysis provides that the predictive power of news-based volatility is continuing, as most of the coefficients are positive and significant. So, in general, the news based implied volatility model is associated with high market volatility. Moreover, stock market prices go on rising, different effects that appeared in each subsample period. On the recent period, when Abenomics was conducted, the effect decreased. Also, the effect of exchange rates decrease in short time. When stock prices decrease, volatilities of the stock prices in the past period increase. There is some possibility that markets were too unstable about the movements because of the low prices. Also, the volatility of long-term interest rates increases when the interest rate declines in the recent period under Abenomics. Although interest rates have been quite low in both sample periods, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) started to manage long-term interest rates in the recent period, so market participants seem to begin noticing the movements.


Modeling the Volatility and Forecasting the Stock Price of the German Stock Index (DAX30)


Authors: Tristan Nguyen ; Thi Thanh Mai Bui
Pages: 72-92
Abstract
To analyze the factors affecting the price volatility of stocks, microeconomic and macroeco-nomic elements must be considered. This paper selects elements that are appropriate with the daily data of stock prices to build the GARCH family models. External variables such as global oil prices, consumer price index, short interest rates and the exchange rate between the United States Dollar and the Euro are examined. The GARCH models are developed in order to analyze and forecast the stock price of the companies in the DAX 30, which is Germany’s most important stock exchange barometer. The volatility of the residual of the mean function is the important key point in the GARCH approach. This financial application can be extend-ed to analyze other specific shares or stock indexes in any stock market in the world. There-fore, it is necessary to understand the operating procedures of their pricing for risk manage-ment, profitability strategies, cost minimization and, in addition, to construct the optimal port-folio depending on investor’s preferences.