Volume 4 Number 5 May 2018

Exchange Rate Fluctuation and Industrial Output Growth in Nigeria

Authors: Akinmulegun Sunday O. ; Falana Olajide E.
Pages: 145-158
This study examined the effects of exchange rate fluctuation on the Industrial Output Growth in Nigeria using time series data sparring from the period 1986 to 2015. Johansen’s Co-Integration model was employed to explore the long-run relationship among the variables used, while the Vector Error Correction model (VECM) was used to evaluate the short and long-run dynamic among the variables and the Granger Causality used to measure contemporaneous relationship among the endogenous variables. The dynamic correlation of the variables was captured by the analyses of impulse response and variance decomposition. The results of the analysis indicate a unidirectional causality from Exchange rate to Industrial output. The response of industrial output to the shock from exchange rate was positive and significant; more specifically in the initial years, while response to shock from other variables was little in magnitude and not as significant as exchange rate. From the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD), the study revealed that although the main source of variance in output are own shocks, innovation in the exchange rate accounted for a higher proportion in the variation of industrial output than that  of other  associated variables (Inflation, Interest rate and Net Export). The study concluded that exchange rate has potentials of causing significant changes in industrial output in Nigeria.   Against this backdrop, the study recommended the need for more macroeconomic policy attention to the proper management of the exchange rate, and the need to strengthen the link between agriculture and the industrial sector to reduce the reliance of the sector on import of inputs to a reasonable level.

Real Exchange Returns and Real Stock Price Returns in Nigeria: An Econometrics Analysis of the Direction of Causality

Authors: Adewumi Otonne ; Terzungwe Usar ; Adebayo Adereni
Pages: 131-144
This paper examined the causal relationship between real exchange rate returns and real stock price returns in Nigeria from January 1985- June 2017. For the investigation the VAR/pair-wise granger causality test and Sims-causality test were applied. From the evidences shown, there exist a unidirectional causal relationship between real exchange rate returns and real stock price returns. Causality running from Real exchange rate returns to real stock price returns. Thus, the past values of REXR can influence/predict the present value of RSPR. This confirms the findings of Olugbenga (2012) and the proposition of the flow oriented model. Also, evidences from the sims-Causality test show that there is uni-directional causality running from Real exchange rate returns to real stock price returns. Thus, the present value of REXR can influence/predict the future values of RSPR. Therefore, it is important for the monetary authority of Nigeria to put into due consideration the exchange rate policy in its conduct of monetary policy internally. Investors could also use these findings as an effective tool in stock trading. As movement in the foreign exchange market (real exchange rate returns) could have a great impact on the present and future movement of stock exchange market (real stock price returns) in Nigeria.

Estimation of the Marshall-Lerner Condition and J Curve Dynamics for Turkey

Authors: Ilyas Siklar ; Merve Celik Kecili
Pages: 125-130
The main purpose of this study is to investigate the validity of Marshall-Lerner condition and the existence of J curve for the Turkish economy. Because of transition to the floating exchange rate regime in 2001, the analyzing period has been chosen as 2003-2016 to use monthly data for the related variables. After conducting unit- root and cointegration tests, the estimated VECM results show that Marshall- Lerner condition holds for the Turkish case. On the other hand, estimated VECM produces impulse- response functions that prove the existence of J curve for the Turkish economy in the long run.

A Primer on Basic Concepts in International Economics: Measuring and Classifying Countries and Evaluating Strategies Employed By Companies Engaged In the Global Market

Authors: Richard J. Hunter Jr. ; Hector R. Lozada ; John H. Shannon
Pages: 115-124
Gaining an understanding of the basics of international economics plays an important part in developing an effective strategy for successfully penetrating the international or globalized market.  In deciding upon an effective strategy for market penetration, a company may be constrained by the policies, laws, or other administrative or regulatory procedures which are in force in the host country.  Economic considerations related to income, strategies for market penetration, development indicators, and debt will determine the readiness of countries to accept foreign investment and are critical pieces of the analysis that must be undertaken.  In addition, in order to successfully compete in a globalized world, a company must navigate these delicate issues relating to sovereignty that will impact on the decision-making process.In reaching the decision to move outside national borders, a company must exercise sound judgment regarding opportunities and risks associated with the economy of the host nation in order to guaranty the success of a proposed international operation.These measurements, classifications, strategies, and development criteria important in the context of international business are often looked upon as secondary to judging financial or accounting realities.  Yet, by taking into account these core definitional concepts in developing an investment strategy, businesses will assure success on a wide variety of fronts.

The Socioeconomic Performance of Women in Parallel Trading and its Implications in Ethiopia, the Case of Dessie Town

Authors: Sebsib Hadis
Pages: 107-114
This paper presents the Socioeconomic Performance of Women in parallel trading and its Implications in Dessie town Ethiopia. The study was carried out in Dessie town Ethiopia. Primary Data were gathered from parallel traders through questionnaire and observation, and secondary data sources were accessed from Dessie town trade and transport office and CSA (Central Statistical Agency). The paper has purely mixed explanatory sequential approach which is based on the collection and analysis of quantitative data to be followed and supported by a qualitative data. The finding of the study has shown that parallel trading is the first among alternatives for women’s divorced or widowed and dependent hitherto to parallel trading. Women in parallel trading were engaged in retails of food items that are easily accessed in the local markets, in which more than two-third of households are dependent on the gains as well as become involved in the retails activity. Though, the economic responses of parallel trading were the bases for women’s livelihood, its performance would not let women’s and their dependent family members /household to have better house and access to education. Furthermore, the study has shown that the socioeconomic performance of parallel trading were constrained by government regulations that exclude and discourage the trading, lack of access to finance, lack of premises and lack of smooth supply of inputs. Therefore, it is important for both local governments and organizations working on women affairs to reconsider their actions and create an environment encouraging for women in parallel trading to grow and integrate to formal economic sectors.

Bank Capital and Credit Supply in Ivory Coast: Evidence from an ARDL-Bounds Testing Approach

Authors: PRAO YAO Seraphin ; Kamalan Eug?ne
Pages: 99-106
The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of bank minimum capital requirement on credit supply in Ivory Coast, over the period from 1982 to 2016. To this end, the ARDL method was used to study the nature of the relationship between our explanatory variables and bank credit supply in Ivory Coast. The study indicates some major results.  The results showed that in the short term, real GDP per capita and bank size influence credit supply in Ivory Coast. Real GDP per capita acts negatively on credit supply in the short run while bank size has a positive influence on banks’ capacity to finance the economy. In the long run, the Cooke ratio and the openness rate have an impact on bank credit supply in Ivory Coast. The recovery of bank minimum capital requirements positively influences bank credit supply while the openness of the economy negatively impacts banks’ ability to offer bank credit. In terms of economic policies implications, monetary authorities must enforce and respect the policy of increasing bank minimum capital requirements. They must encourage banks to increase their banking assets.