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International Journal of Healthcare and Medical Sciences

Online ISSN: 2414-2999
Print ISSN: 2415-5233

Quarterly Published (4 Issues Per Year)





Archives

Volume 12 Number 1 January 2026

Modelling and Forecasting of Measles cases in Nigeria Using the Integer Autoregressive (INAR) Model with Negative Binomial (NB) Distribution Hybrid


Authors: Nasiru M. Olakorede ; Sa’adatu Liman Ahmed ; Zira Sharon Dia
Pages: 12-21
DOI: doi.org/10.32861/ijhms.121.12.21
Abstract
This study examines the measles case series in Nigeria from 2018 to 2022, analyzing trends, modeling, and forecasting using the INAR model with NB hybrid. The average number of measles cases per year was 1084 persons, with a minimum of 254 persons and a maximum of 2924 persons The total number of measles cases recorded during this period was 53,114 persons The data was found to be non-normally distributed (p-value = 0.005), overdispersed (p-value < 0.05), and autocorrelated (p-value < 0.05). An Integer AutoRegressive (INAR) model of order 1 was found to be the most suitable model, with an estimated ar1 parameter of -06885 (p-value < 0.05). The model was combined with a Negative Binomial distribution hybrid to fit the data, with an overdispersion parameter of k=203 and a mean of 108394 The hybrid modeling approach, with lead time forecasting method, predicted that measles cases will tend to increase in the nearest future, with a minimum record of 1407 persons and a maximum record of 1443 persons The results provide insights into the dynamics of measles cases in Nigeria and inform public health strategies for combating measles outbreaks.

Neuropsychoanalysis of Psychiatric Unbalance: Impairing Either Emotional Balance or Learning Correction


Authors: Zi-Jian Cai
Pages: 1-11
DOI: doi.org/10.32861/ijhms.121.1.11
Abstract
Introduction: It was Freudian psychoanalysis that demonstrated the psychiatric unbalance with three psychological elements, the unconscious/preconscious/conscious in topographic theory, and id/ego/super-ego in structural theory. Purpose: It was aimed to review the scientific neuropsychoanalysis for psychiatric unbalance. Methods: It was searched the papers from Pubmed, Researchgate and Baidu, and then classified and summarized. Results and Discussions: It was supplemented by Cai the reticular noradrenergic(NA), serotonergic(5-HT), acetylcholinergic(ACh) and later dopaminergic(DA) systems to depression and anxiety for Freudian topographic theory, while the reticular DA and ACh systems to schizophrenia and dementia for structural theory. It was termed these reticular systems altogether as the new element “reticula" for neuropsychoanalysis, while it was classified the neuropsychoanalysis into six elements as aversion/motivation/perception/behavior/memories/reticula, unified for depression, anxiety and schizophrenia. Furthermore, it was demonstrated that the rapid eye movement(REM) sleep processed emotional memories and resulted in atonia, shifting the emotional balance toward depression by atonic drive dissipation, supporting Freudian topographic theory, while the slow wave sleep(SWS) ameliorated anxiety/depression and supplemented a new half story of neuropsychoanalysis the Freudian psychoanalysis neglecting. Conclusions: It is convenient to demonstrate the psychiatric unbalance via interactions/conflicts of six elements as aversion/motivation/perception/behavior/memories/reticula, diagnosing abnormalities in such processes as reticular regulation, sleep function, muscular tension, microglial activity and so on, impairing either emotional balance or learning correction in psychiatric patients.